Are Mormons Keeping Mitt Romney Afloat?
By Timothy Stanley          
       Mar 14 2012,                     His victories in the Pacific Islands and American West show  the power of a strong minority to boost a weak candidate in low turn-out  contests.
There are six kids in white shirts and black ties standing in a line.  One steps forward and dances around the others, hissing and sneering like a  bobcat. He moves to the front on the chorus and the boys start slapping their  thighs in a steady one-two-three, one-two-three rhythm. The leader cries, "Grab the  book from your pants!" They pull out a black book -- one-two-three. "Slap the  book on your chest!" They slap away -- one-two-three. "Read the book, read the  book, pray, pray!" One-two-three. "We've got the gospel, you get it, you get  it?" Then they step towards the camera and wave their hands. "You come  walk in the waters with meeee!" The boys fall to the floor in a fit of  giggles. It's 
one of the odder sights on YouTube. 
The book is The Book of Mormon and the boys are young missionaries. They  are dancing a Mormon-themed version of the Maori war dance, or 
Haka  -- just one of the many Mormon Haka videos posted on YouTube (if you  want to see the dance done with real force, check out this version by 
by Mormons Elders Hopoate and Ofahulu  in Australia.) This extraordinary cross-fertilization of Mormonism and  Polynesian culture is quite common. It's a testament to the broad and  growing reach of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints -- and  hints at the political power of the Mormon diaspora. 
In a primary season as competitive as 2012, every delegate counts. For  that reason, the votes of Republican Pacific islanders living in  American territories and Hawaii have gained an unusual degree of  importance. Last Saturday, beleaguered front-runner 
Mitt Romney won GOP caucuses in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands.  On Tuesday he scooped victories in American Samoa and Hawaii. Together,  these islands have given him at least 36 delegates -- a small number,  perhaps, but one more hard-earned step towards the nomination. He came  in third in the American deep South last night, but he still was the  day's delegate winner, thanks to the island caucuses. 
Romney's victories owed something to the Pacific islands' large  population of Mormons. In fact, local members of the Church of Jesus  Christ of Latter-day Saints may have proved crucial to winning each of  these caucuses. It wouldn't be the first case of Mormons bailing out  Romney this campaign season. They've also helped his candidacy in two  critical Western states -- demonstrating that Mormons aren't just a  great fundraising network, but a surprisingly powerful demographic force  within the world of low-turnout GOP primaries and caucuses. 
The Mormon presence in the Pacific islands is 
certainly substantial.  There are an estimated 14,784 Mormons in American Samoa -- where only  about 70 Republicans gathered to caucus Tuesday -- and 55,000 in Hawaii  -- where more 10,000 Republicans turned out -- along with 1,971 in Guam,  and 735 in the Northern Marianas. The heavy concentration of converts  is no coincidence. 
Polynesians have a special place in Mormon theology.  According to some Mormons, thousands of years ago a group of  Israelites, led by the prophet Lehi, escaped Babylonian captivity and  sailed to freedom in Central America. Their new civilization flourished  until it was destroyed in a civil war between the Nephite and Lamanite  factions in 400AD. The sinful Lamanites, who won, were distinguished by a  dark colored skin and were the forebears of the Native Americans. 
According to the Mormon 
Book of Alma, a mixed group of Nephites and Lamanites 
sailed to Polynesia in 55BC.  They settled down peacefully and, mixing with migrants from Southeast  Asia, became the modern Polynesians. Many Mormons thus believe that the  Polynesians practice a religion that is very close to the early  Israelite church -- a claim supported by the fact that they share  several myths in common with the Hebrew tradition, including one about a  great flood. In the Mormon mind, Polynesians have a covenanted role to  play in religious history. Being dark skinned, they bear the "mark" of  the Lamanites. But, as the apocalypse approaches, the Book of Mormon  prophesizes that they shall become "a white and delightsome people" (NB,  the word "white" was changed to "pure" in 1981). 

In fact, it was typical for Christian missionaries to claim that the  Polynesians were a lost tribe of Israel: the first Protestant missionary  to New Zealand in 1830 called the Maori "dispersed Jews." This helped  justify the expense of evangelization, which continued apace during the  19
th century. Mormons often get rough treatment when they try  to spread their version of the Good News abroad. But in Polynesia they  benefited from cultural norms about hospitality that made the locals natural  converts. The LDS Church set up its first mission in Samoa in 1862 and, since then,  it's been one of the most popular destinations for missionaries to go -- because  Samoans have a culture of welcoming strangers and listen to what they have to  say. Only local Protestant and Catholic churches resisted Mormon encroachment, retarding  growth until after the Second World War. Since then, the American Samoan church  has grown to a likely 22.5 percent of the population. The LDS Church  puts the figure as high as 30 percent, and today's 
Republican vice chairman in American Samoa -- where Romney swept -- 
played football at Romney's alma mater, the Mormon-owned and operated Brigham Young University.  One of the reasons why Polynesians were drawn to Mormonism was that the  Mormons were so generous. In addition to building schools locally, 
they welcomed migration to Utah. As a result, present-day Utah has a population of about 
25,000 people  of Pacific Islander descent. Although they tend to join wards  (churches) in heavily Polynesian neighborhoods, there is little evidence  of racial segregation. Given the sometimes difficult historical  relationship between white Mormons and African-Americans, the LDS's  embrace of Polynesians is an example of how its theology is oddly  bifurcated. It has been 
capable of discriminating against one minority while positively fetishizing another, with the lines of racial demarcation shaped by the peculiarities of scripture. 
Did the Mormon/Polynesia link make a difference in the Pacific island votes? Two things that suggest so. First, 
the Romney campaign made a big outreach to the islanders.  The day before the Northern Marianas voted, Mitt's son Matt had lunch  with the governor of the islands and the candidate dialed in to say  sorry for not being there: "I am apologetic that I can't be with you  today, but as you could imagine I'm running from place to place, trying to secure as many delegates as I  can." Matt added, "It is important for us to get everywhere we can, everywhere that people vote. This is obviously one of the harder locations to get to but  by far, it's one of my favorites so far." And 
Team Romney dominated among local endorsements -- including that of former Republican congressman Charles Djou of Hawaii, 
Hawaii House Minority Leader Gene Ward, and 
Guam Governor Eddie Calvo. 
Second, turnout was so low that it's hard not to credit the sizable  Mormon populations with some impact on the outcome. Even in the islands  with tiny LDS communities, Mormons outnumber the people who participated  in the vote. In Guam, only 207 people took part in the convention.  There are 1,971 Mormons living on the island. 
This is not to suggest a stitch up, but rather to note 
the surprising demographic strength of the LDS Church. Worldwide, its membership 
rocketed  from 4 million in 1978 to 11 million members in 2000. In America, it  has increased by about 30 percent since 1990. There is evidence that  domestic growth has flat-lined, but heavy concentration in certain  states has given it increased political clout. 
Consider the importance of states with sizable Mormon populations to  this year's primaries. Shortly after he won the Florida primary, Romney  faced his first Western challenge in Nevada. Although he was always  going to do well in The Silver State, a strong victory was necessary to  prove that Florida wasn't a one off and he had momentum to carry him to  victory in Michigan at the end of the month. Romney won Nevada with 50  percent. Importantly, 
turnout was a dismal 32,894 -- well below 
the total Mormon population of the state, at 174,662. 
According to CNN exit polls, a quarter of all participants were LDS members and 88 percent of them voted for Mitt. Nationwide, 
only 2 percent of Americans are Mormon. 
One month later, there was Arizona. Arizona wasn't as important as  Romney's home state of Michigan, which voted on the same day, but for a  while Santorum was close to Romney in polls and it was vital that Mitt  win the Arizona primary. He did so easily, by 47 percent. Turnout was  505,635. The local Mormon population is 381,235 and, 
according to CNN,  14 percent of voters were LDS members. Three days later came Washington  state, which was, again, important for establishing Romney's  credibility after a series of defeats by Santorum. Romney won with 38  percent on an appalling 1.4 percent turnout. The turnout equaled 50,764  Republicans -- in a state with a local Mormon population of 263,004.  Romney has also won Idaho and Wyoming, both of which have high densities  of LDS members (Idaho is the second most Mormon state in America, after  Utah). It is surely significant that Mitt has yet to be truly tested in  a Western state that doesn't have a significant population of Mormons.  The only such challenge he has faced so far was in Colorado, 
which he lost  40 to 35 percent. Ergo, even if Mormons aren't directly responsible for  Romney's Western victories, they have been critical to their scale and  maintaining his campaign's momentum. 
Much has been written about the role that Mormons have played in the  2012 race, but most of it has operated on a conceptual level. What might  voters think of Romney's faith? How will Romney's beliefs influence his  decision making? What has been less well studied is the precise impact  of Mormon votes and communities on the primary outcome. Given their  obvious significance in early Western votes and the way that they have  helped add to Romney's delegate count in the Pacific islands, it's clear  the extended Mormon family has delivered for Romney and proven itself  to be a vital part of the Republican electoral process. If and when  Romney sews up the nomination, their Haka may well be heard at the  convention.