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Wednesday, Jun. 08, 2011
Romney leads in S.C., poll says
Palin, who has not said whether she will run, in second place
A new poll affirms former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as South Carolina’s early favorite for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling quizzed 1,000 South Carolinians who usually vote in GOP primaries and found Romney leading with 27 percent support. The poll’s margin of error is 3.1 percent.
Romney, who also ran for president in 2008, also is in first place in three other early-voting Republican contests – in New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa, according to polls by Public Policy, which made its reputation polling for Democratic candidates.
North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling quizzed 1,000 South Carolinians who usually vote in GOP primaries and found Romney leading with 27 percent support. The poll’s margin of error is 3.1 percent.
Romney, who also ran for president in 2008, also is in first place in three other early-voting Republican contests – in New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa, according to polls by Public Policy, which made its reputation polling for Democratic candidates.
But Larry Sabato, politics professor and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, expects Romney to lose his S.C. lead, in part because of his Mormon faith.
“You have to combine a poll with the political reality of a state,” Sabato said. “There’s a reason why (Romney) does so well in New Hampshire, because he was governor nearby in Massachusetts. They know him.
“There’s a reason he’s doing well in Nevada. There are lots of Mormons there.
“But (Christian) fundamentalists are about 60 percent of the Republican base in both South Carolina and Iowa, and they have a problem with Mormons. These are small leads (in South Carolina and Iowa), and we know for sure that Romney has problems in both states. We know that from 2008, and not that much has changed.”
During his 2008 run, Romney spent millions in South Carolina only to finish a disappointing fourth.
That showing has led to widespread speculation that Romney will not campaign much in South Carolina this year as he seeks the GOP nomination. Still, Romney was briefly in the state last month to meet with a group in Irmo to discuss the economy.
According to the poll, Romney’s strongest following is among South Carolinians who say they are moderate Republicans. He received 41 percent of that group’s support to Sarah Palin’s 15 percent.
The poll also found Palin is South Carolina’s second-favorite Republican. The former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate, who has not said whether she will run in 2012, garnered the support of 18 percent of those surveyed.
Both Romney and Palin have close ties to S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley. Romney’s political action committees were heavy contributors to Haley’s 2011 campaign. Palin appeared in Columbia to endorse Haley before the GOP primary.
Former chief executive of Godfather’s Pizza Herman Cain and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, both of bordering Georgia, were tied at 12 percent each in the poll.
The remainder of the field polled in the single digits: U.S. Rep. Michele Bachman of Minnesota at 9 percent, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 7 percent, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 4 percent and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who was U.S. ambassador to China under President Barack Obama, at 2 percent.
Joel Sawyer, Huntsman’s S.C. director, said his candidate’s low showing is because so few South Carolinians know him.
“The poll results are largely a function of name ID,” Sawyer said. “Gov. Huntsman has been in the state one time. He’s been exploring the idea of running for president for less than a month.”
Sawyer added if Huntsman decides later this month to run, S.C. voters can expect to see him frequently.
“You have to combine a poll with the political reality of a state,” Sabato said. “There’s a reason why (Romney) does so well in New Hampshire, because he was governor nearby in Massachusetts. They know him.
“There’s a reason he’s doing well in Nevada. There are lots of Mormons there.
“But (Christian) fundamentalists are about 60 percent of the Republican base in both South Carolina and Iowa, and they have a problem with Mormons. These are small leads (in South Carolina and Iowa), and we know for sure that Romney has problems in both states. We know that from 2008, and not that much has changed.”
During his 2008 run, Romney spent millions in South Carolina only to finish a disappointing fourth.
That showing has led to widespread speculation that Romney will not campaign much in South Carolina this year as he seeks the GOP nomination. Still, Romney was briefly in the state last month to meet with a group in Irmo to discuss the economy.
According to the poll, Romney’s strongest following is among South Carolinians who say they are moderate Republicans. He received 41 percent of that group’s support to Sarah Palin’s 15 percent.
The poll also found Palin is South Carolina’s second-favorite Republican. The former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate, who has not said whether she will run in 2012, garnered the support of 18 percent of those surveyed.
Both Romney and Palin have close ties to S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley. Romney’s political action committees were heavy contributors to Haley’s 2011 campaign. Palin appeared in Columbia to endorse Haley before the GOP primary.
Former chief executive of Godfather’s Pizza Herman Cain and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, both of bordering Georgia, were tied at 12 percent each in the poll.
The remainder of the field polled in the single digits: U.S. Rep. Michele Bachman of Minnesota at 9 percent, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 7 percent, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 4 percent and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who was U.S. ambassador to China under President Barack Obama, at 2 percent.
Joel Sawyer, Huntsman’s S.C. director, said his candidate’s low showing is because so few South Carolinians know him.
“The poll results are largely a function of name ID,” Sawyer said. “Gov. Huntsman has been in the state one time. He’s been exploring the idea of running for president for less than a month.”
Sawyer added if Huntsman decides later this month to run, S.C. voters can expect to see him frequently.
thats serisouly very difficult for me to recon with, as SC is largely a baptist state, sitting in the middle of the "bible belt". and for the most part Baptists have had issues with the doctrines of The Church of Jesus CHrist of Latter-Day Saints.
very hard for me to see that ROmney would be ahead in the polls there.
perhaps, hes the "lesser, of two evils" lol
MICHELLE
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